BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

19×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.44.8
20263.72.54.8
20273.72.64.9
20283.82.65.0
20293.92.75.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OwendaleMICHIGAN792017
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN432024
LapeerMICHIGAN302024
LockportOHIO292024
NapoleonOHIO292024
VickeryOHIO232024
MillvilleMINNESOTA202019
ParisWISCONSIN202023
EllisINDIANA182024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN182024
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN172024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN162024
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA142019
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN122024
OlaMICHIGAN112024
HoltMICHIGAN112024
PackertownINDIANA102004
LagrangeINDIANA102024
DresserWISCONSIN102024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN102024
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN102024
AnnatonWISCONSIN102024
MottvilleMICHIGAN92024
HungerfordMICHIGAN92023
Packertown 2INDIANA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.