BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 2.8–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 2.8–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.54.9
20273.82.64.9
20283.82.75.0
20293.92.85.1
20304.02.85.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OwendaleMICHIGAN792017
KendallWISCONSIN392025
LockportOHIO242025
AnnatonWISCONSIN232025
NapoleonOHIO212025
EllisINDIANA182024
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN182024
KnoxINDIANA172025
DeckervilleMICHIGAN162024
HoltMICHIGAN152025
VickeryOHIO152025
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN152025
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA142019
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN132025
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN122025
LapeerMICHIGAN122025
Packertown 2INDIANA112025
PackertownINDIANA102004
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN92025
EdenWISCONSIN92025
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN92025
NashvilleMICHIGAN82025
Le CenterMINNESOTA82025
MottvilleMICHIGAN72025
PrattvilleMICHIGAN72021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.