BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+532%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
337Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.5 (95% range 8.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.5 (95% range 8.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.97.510
20279.07.710
20289.27.811
20299.37.911
20309.58.111

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TazewellGEORGIA502025
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA492024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA462025
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA432025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA402025
Broad BranchFLORIDA382025
MansfieldTENNESSEE382025
OusleyGEORGIA372025
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA372025
BelmontFLORIDA342025
WeberGEORGIA342025
HumboldtTENNESSEE342025
BlountstownFLORIDA322024
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA322009
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA312025
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA312024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA312013
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA302025
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA302024
NewsomsVIRGINIA302024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA282025
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA272025
GreensboroALABAMA262025
Mossy HeadFLORIDA262011
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA262022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.