BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 580% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+580%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
336Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 580% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.3 (95% range 7.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.3 (95% range 7.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.77.410
20268.97.510
20279.07.610
20289.27.811
20299.37.911

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA572024
ShilohGEORGIA502024
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA492024
HumboldtTENNESSEE452024
Coffee CoGEORGIA412024
WorkmoreGEORGIA382019
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA382024
MansfieldTENNESSEE332024
BlountstownFLORIDA322024
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA322009
Red BluffSOUTH-CAROLINA322024
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA312024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA312013
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA302024
NewsomsVIRGINIA302024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA292024
Mossy HeadFLORIDA262011
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA262022
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA252024
SandersonFLORIDA242021
SouthALABAMA232024
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA232024
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA232021
Broad BranchFLORIDA222024
FinleysonGEORGIA222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.