BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 9.5–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 91% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 9.5–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026199.229
2027199.329
2028199.329
2029199.429
2030199.529

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZapataTEXAS471987
EncinalTEXAS432010
Millett 2TEXAS352024
Encinal 2TEXAS322025
Agua NuevaTEXAS272023
Catarina 2TEXAS272017
MillettTEXAS242012
HondoTEXAS232025
LaredoTEXAS212023
SejitaTEXAS192024
CatarinaTEXAS172010
El SauzTEXAS142023
GuerraTEXAS132025
ProgresoTEXAS132011
Mirando CityTEXAS122025
La PryorTEXAS122017
RaymondvilleTEXAS102025
KingsvilleTEXAS82024
El IndioTEXAS82007
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS72025
RachalTEXAS62025
San YgnacioTEXAS61985
Pedro CreekTEXAS62010
HeidelbergTEXAS52024
RandadoTEXAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.