BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Coastal California has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+172%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Coastal California: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Coastal California is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 7.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Coastal California is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 7.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.76.911
20268.87.011
20278.97.111
20289.07.211
20299.27.311

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA372024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA352011
OnoCALIFORNIA322012
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA322024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA322024
SisquocCALIFORNIA302014
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA262024
GlennCALIFORNIA252023
Gold HillCALIFORNIA242024
Mark WestCALIFORNIA232024
MoragaCALIFORNIA212024
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA192002
South LakeCALIFORNIA172006
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA172023
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA162024
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA162023
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA162024
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA152014
PenningtonCALIFORNIA142024
AuburnCALIFORNIA141980
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA142004
PolomaCALIFORNIA132024
HughsonCALIFORNIA122024
Morro BayCALIFORNIA112019
OrovilleCALIFORNIA112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.