BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Coastal California has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+201%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Coastal California: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.3 (95% range 7.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.3 (95% range 7.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.97.011
20279.07.211
20289.17.311
20299.27.411
20309.37.511

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoyoteCALIFORNIA432025
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA352011
OnoCALIFORNIA322012
SisquocCALIFORNIA302014
GlennCALIFORNIA302025
HughsonCALIFORNIA262025
Mark WestCALIFORNIA242025
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA222025
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA192002
FolsomCALIFORNIA172025
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA172025
South LakeCALIFORNIA172006
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA172023
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA172025
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA162025
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA162025
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA162024
Red BluffCALIFORNIA152025
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA152014
AuburnCALIFORNIA141980
OrovilleCALIFORNIA142025
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA142004
MoragaCALIFORNIA132025
PolomaCALIFORNIA132024
PenningtonCALIFORNIA122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.