BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
271Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.9–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 9.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.9–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.45.39.5
20267.55.49.7
20277.75.69.8
20287.85.79.9
20298.05.910

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New PointMISSOURI982024
FrankfordMISSOURI802024
JamestownINDIANA542024
BedfordIOWA542018
LaplandKANSAS542022
Terre HauteILLINOIS492024
BelleviewILLINOIS492024
SextonINDIANA482024
DecaturINDIANA452024
KunkleOHIO452024
No KentonOHIO422024
Trading PostKANSAS402024
LucerneMISSOURI402021
ConcordILLINOIS352024
ColumbiaILLINOIS312024
BradburyILLINOIS302024
BarclayKANSAS282024
FultonOHIO282024
GalvestonINDIANA272024
FrankfortINDIANA262022
McfallMISSOURI262024
BrookvilleINDIANA252024
TrentonMISSOURI252024
Rock Creek 2KANSAS232024
Queen CityMISSOURI232022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.