BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
272Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.75.59.8
20277.85.710.0
20288.05.810
20298.16.010
20308.36.110

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KunkleOHIO712025
PaysonILLINOIS602025
New PointMISSOURI582025
LaplandKANSAS542022
ChandlervillILLINOIS532025
FrankfordMISSOURI532025
New HamptonMISSOURI532025
SextonINDIANA482024
WelchOKLAHOMA482025
LacledeMISSOURI442025
FultonOHIO442025
Witts StationINDIANA382025
JohnsonNEBRASKA372025
OlsburgKANSAS342025
W LafayetteINDIANA332025
Terre HauteILLINOIS322025
BelleviewILLINOIS322025
BrookvilleINDIANA322025
EllinorKANSAS302025
ExlineIOWA272025
Red RockIOWA232025
RockinghamMISSOURI232025
LucerneMISSOURI232025
Queen CityMISSOURI232022
NeolaIOWA222025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.