BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+275%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 274% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10.0–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.019
2027149.319
2028149.519
2029159.720
20301510.020

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS872016
IndianolaTEXAS452024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS422016
GlencoeLOUISIANA272018
KatyTEXAS262025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA232025
ChinquapinTEXAS182025
Rock IslandTEXAS172025
BaysideTEXAS172010
Bayside 2TEXAS172004
Lag AtascosaTEXAS142025
Loyola BeachTEXAS142009
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA132017
San PedroTEXAS132025
Oyster LakeTEXAS122025
HackberryLOUISIANA112016
JuniorLOUISIANA101991
Hinkles FerTEXAS102025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS102025
VanderbiltTEXAS91976
Moon Lake 2TEXAS82025
Vinton 2LOUISIANA72025
Moon LakeTEXAS72011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS72025
RichardLOUISIANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.