BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.10.0015
20275.00.0015
20285.00.0015
20294.90.0015
20304.90.0014

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA922025
Carr MtnARIZONA312025
PatagoniaARIZONA212025
CutterARIZONA202014
Clay SpringARIZONA132025
RedingtonARIZONA112025
Forest LakesARIZONA82025
FlagstaffARIZONA72022
San SimonARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA71997
Mormon LakeARIZONA61974
AmadoARIZONA62025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA62025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA52025
Bartlett ResARIZONA52025
WilliamsARIZONA42025
PortalARIZONA42025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42025
Peña BlancaARIZONA32025
PinetopARIZONA32022
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA32025
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21990
SahuaritaARIZONA22025
McnealARIZONA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.