BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.90.0015
20264.80.0014
20274.80.0014
20284.70.0014
20294.70.0014

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA602024
CutterARIZONA202014
PatagoniaARIZONA122024
Carr MtnARIZONA122024
AmadoARIZONA112023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA112024
PortalARIZONA92024
FlagstaffARIZONA72022
San SimonARIZONA72024
Peña BlancaARIZONA72024
SunizonaARIZONA71997
Mt. GrahamARIZONA72022
Mormon LakeARIZONA61974
RedingtonARIZONA62023
AlpineARIZONA52023
Clay SpringARIZONA52024
PrescottARIZONA42021
WilliamsARIZONA32019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA32021
PinetopARIZONA32022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO32024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32024
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21990
SprucedaleARIZONA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.