BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 302% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+302%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 302% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 8.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 8.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.57.412
20279.77.512
20289.87.712
202910.07.812
2030108.012

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CassvilleMISSOURI722025
FarwellARKANSAS532018
Indian SpgsINDIANA452025
SyracuseMISSOURI442024
RussellARKANSAS332021
New PhilaINDIANA332025
KarnakILLINOIS322025
RoyaltonILLINOIS312025
SwaimALABAMA262025
CantonKENTUCKY252025
Rueter 2MISSOURI252025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE252025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY242021
SedaliaMISSOURI242025
WrigleyTENNESSEE242022
YorkILLINOIS222025
HudsonKENTUCKY222025
DixieKENTUCKY212019
HustonvilleKENTUCKY202025
West PlainsMISSOURI202025
PulaskiILLINOIS192025
NewberryINDIANA192025
SanduskyILLINOIS182023
CraneMISSOURI182025
GranitevilleMISSOURI182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.