BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+293%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.9 (95% range 7.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.9 (95% range 7.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.37.211
20269.47.312
20279.67.412
20289.77.612
20299.97.712

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS532018
SyracuseMISSOURI442024
CassvilleMISSOURI382024
RussellARKANSAS332021
SedaliaMISSOURI312024
MillerMISSOURI312024
RoyaltonILLINOIS302024
NewberryINDIANA272024
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI272024
KarnakILLINOIS242024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY242021
WrigleyTENNESSEE242022
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE242024
CascadeMISSOURI232024
DixieKENTUCKY212019
Rueter 2MISSOURI212024
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY202024
New PhilaINDIANA192024
AkersMISSOURI192024
ElkmontALABAMA182024
CentertonARKANSAS182024
SanduskyILLINOIS182023
EastviewKENTUCKY182024
EugeneMISSOURI182024
CourtlandALABAMA172023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.