BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.55–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.55–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.55–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.554.1
20262.30.554.1
20272.30.554.1
20282.30.554.1
20292.30.554.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoneydewCALIFORNIA472017
WinberryOREGON412023
ElktonOREGON232024
RaymondWASHINGTON222021
UmpquaOREGON172024
Hazel CampOREGON162022
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA142024
GlasgowOREGON142024
GreenOREGON142024
PackwoodWASHINGTON142024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA132023
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON132024
AdairOREGON122024
ScappooseOREGON122023
South ElmaWASHINGTON122024
Pe EllWASHINGTON122021
Rio DellCALIFORNIA102010
AlderpointCALIFORNIA82012
WaldportOREGON82001
SalemOREGON82024
MolallaOREGON82024
Fish RockCALIFORNIA72014
UkiahCALIFORNIA72011
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA72016
Emigrant LkOREGON72001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.