BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.61–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.61–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.614.1
20272.40.614.1
20282.40.614.1
20292.40.614.1
20302.40.614.1

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoneydewCALIFORNIA472017
WinberryOREGON412023
UmpquaOREGON352025
RaymondWASHINGTON222021
ElktonOREGON192025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA182025
WedderburnOREGON172025
Hazel CampOREGON162022
GlasgowOREGON152025
PackwoodWASHINGTON142024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA132023
South ElmaWASHINGTON122024
SaladoOREGON112025
Rio DellCALIFORNIA102010
SalemOREGON102025
ScioOREGON92025
AlderpointCALIFORNIA82012
AdairOREGON82025
WaldportOREGON82001
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA72025
Fish RockCALIFORNIA72014
UkiahCALIFORNIA72011
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA72016
Emigrant LkOREGON72001
OrleansCALIFORNIA62011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.