BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 679% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+679%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 679% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.44–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.44–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.710.391.0
20270.730.401.1
20280.740.411.1
20290.750.421.1
20300.770.441.1

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN422025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN142025
SkeelsMICHIGAN82015
Lake CityMICHIGAN72015
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN72025
OntonagonMICHIGAN52019
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN52022
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN52011
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN51990
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN52024
HerronMICHIGAN52013
ExelandWISCONSIN52025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN52017
CunardMICHIGAN42021
WarroadMINNESOTA42024
PhillipsWISCONSIN42023
Frederic 2MICHIGAN32014
Imp LakeMICHIGAN32016
BlackduckMINNESOTA32005
NebishMINNESOTA32023
Nett LakeMINNESOTA32024
Iron RiverWISCONSIN32022
Union TwpWISCONSIN32025
BerglandMICHIGAN22018
Ned LakeMICHIGAN22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.