BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+185%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Turkey Vulture In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.781.9
20271.40.801.9
20281.40.832.0
20291.40.852.0
20301.40.882.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KayceeWYOMING182014
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA151993
SeelyWYOMING152000
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA102021
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA92025
RavenWYOMING92022
MoskeeWYOMING82001
Miles CityMONTANA72024
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA61991
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA62010
DaytonWYOMING62025
Custer 2MONTANA52024
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA52025
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA52013
Moskee 2WYOMING52021
JordanMONTANA42018
BrandenbergMONTANA42025
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
MayoworthWYOMING42024
BucknumWYOMING41997
Reed PointMONTANA32024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA32022
Bull Mtn.MONTANA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.