BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+229%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Turkey Vulture In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.88–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.781.9
20261.40.811.9
20271.40.832.0
20281.40.862.0
20291.40.882.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaytonWYOMING252024
KayceeWYOMING182014
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA151993
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA152022
SeelyWYOMING152000
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING122024
Seely 2WYOMING112024
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA102021
RavenWYOMING92022
MoskeeWYOMING82001
Miles CityMONTANA72024
ArvadaWYOMING72024
BrandenbergMONTANA62019
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA61991
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA62010
UptonWYOMING62024
Moskee 3WYOMING62023
Custer 2MONTANA52024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA52013
Moskee 2WYOMING52021
JordanMONTANA42018
AlbionMONTANA42022
CrookstonNEBRASKA42024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA42017
MayoworthWYOMING42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.