BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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20277.53.611
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20307.43.611

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weaver StnFLORIDA372019
PinecrestFLORIDA352025
Wildernes PkFLORIDA322014
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA252025
TamiamiFLORIDA171974
ShawanoFLORIDA172002
Mt. OliveFLORIDA142025
Dale MabryFLORIDA131988
BelmoreFLORIDA132024
MabelFLORIDA132011
CroomFLORIDA132025
Holey LandFLORIDA132025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA122025
Devils GardnFLORIDA122025
FlamingoFLORIDA122025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA121990
AndytownFLORIDA111998
St LucieFLORIDA102025
PalmdaleFLORIDA102023
KendallFLORIDA91991
Mabel 2FLORIDA92025
Island GroveFLORIDA82025
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA82004
ChildsFLORIDA72022
SalvistaFLORIDA71979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.