BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+244%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 72% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.114
2027129.314
2028129.514
2029129.615
2030129.815

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FrankfordDELAWARE1052012
HarmonyMARYLAND762017
HolleyvilleDELAWARE712004
Holleyville 2DELAWARE602024
PepperboxDELAWARE512016
HarringtonDELAWARE492025
MiltonDELAWARE462016
Piney NeckMARYLAND422025
QuinbyVIRGINIA412025
MatthewsMARYLAND392025
Milton 2DELAWARE342025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS302019
GreenwichNEW-JERSEY302024
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY262025
WalnutMARYLAND252024
GeorgetownDELAWARE222022
MillingtonMARYLAND222025
IndiantownMARYLAND212014
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY211991
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE202025
MadisonMARYLAND192025
ViennaMARYLAND192025
CokesburyMARYLAND192025
MillsboroDELAWARE182025
FruitlandMARYLAND181998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.