BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+290%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 10–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.514
2026129.714
2027129.914
2028121014
2029121015

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FrankfordDELAWARE1052012
HarmonyMARYLAND762017
HolleyvilleDELAWARE712004
Milton 2DELAWARE692017
MadisonMARYLAND632024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE602024
HarringtonDELAWARE562024
CokesburyMARYLAND542024
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE532024
PepperboxDELAWARE512016
ViennaMARYLAND512024
HongaMARYLAND492024
MiltonDELAWARE462016
MillingtonMARYLAND442024
ElktonMARYLAND372024
MelitotaMARYLAND362024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS302019
GreenwichNEW-JERSEY302024
WalnutMARYLAND252024
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY252024
FredericaDELAWARE222014
GeorgetownDELAWARE222022
MatthewsMARYLAND222024
White StoneVIRGINIA222024
IndiantownMARYLAND212014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.