BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+262%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 262% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.93–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.93–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.93–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.871.9
20271.40.891.9
20281.40.901.9
20291.40.921.9
20301.40.931.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WalsenburgCOLORADO222025
GallinasNEW-MEXICO212025
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO192021
CokedaleCOLORADO162025
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO112016
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO102025
CebollaNEW-MEXICO92023
TorreonNEW-MEXICO92025
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO92000
HannaUTAH92024
Fletcher PkWYOMING92025
PiedraCOLORADO82025
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO82025
Alton 2UTAH82025
Peach SpringARIZONA72025
DeltaCOLORADO72012
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO72025
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO72025
MountainairNEW-MEXICO72024
TsaileARIZONA62023
De BequeCOLORADO62025
Animas 2COLORADO62025
CorreoNEW-MEXICO61982
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO61995
DulceNEW-MEXICO62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.