BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+220%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
196Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.89–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.89–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.841.8
20261.30.851.8
20271.40.871.9
20281.40.881.9
20291.40.891.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO192021
M Warner ResUTAH192024
Peach SpringARIZONA172024
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO142024
DulceNEW-MEXICO142024
SanosteeNEW-MEXICO112024
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO112016
Navajo LakeUTAH102023
CebollaNEW-MEXICO92023
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO92000
HannaUTAH92024
DeltaCOLORADO72012
Deadman Rd.COLORADO72023
MountainairNEW-MEXICO72024
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO72024
TsaileARIZONA62023
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO62024
CorreoNEW-MEXICO61982
Corona EastNEW-MEXICO61995
BufordWYOMING62024
BufordCOLORADO52024
Colona 2COLORADO52021
ComoCOLORADO52023
WalsenburgCOLORADO52024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.