BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+229%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.36.612
20279.56.712
20289.66.812
20299.77.012
20309.97.113

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA1121994
CoopertonOKLAHOMA712025
RandlettOKLAHOMA582025
Mertzon 2TEXAS472025
JetOKLAHOMA452024
CashionOKLAHOMA432024
KearneyNEBRASKA392021
KanopolisKANSAS342025
CoatsKANSAS292025
MertzonTEXAS272019
TegardenOKLAHOMA262016
SolomonKANSAS252025
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA252025
HollisOKLAHOMA242025
SicklesOKLAHOMA232021
ElginOKLAHOMA222016
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA221994
CookietownOKLAHOMA212006
WallTEXAS202022
Pear ValleyTEXAS192025
HolbrookNEBRASKA172025
BuckeyeKANSAS162023
VerdenOKLAHOMA162017
Shields 2TEXAS162025
SilverTEXAS142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.