BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+251%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.8 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.8 (95% range 7.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.36.512
20269.46.712
20279.66.812
20289.76.912
20299.87.113

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA1121994
Pear ValleyTEXAS562024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA492024
CovertKANSAS472024
RandlettOKLAHOMA472024
JetOKLAHOMA452024
KanopolisKANSAS442024
CashionOKLAHOMA432024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA422022
KearneyNEBRASKA392021
SilverTEXAS392024
CoatsKANSAS342024
HollisOKLAHOMA302024
MertzonTEXAS272019
TegardenOKLAHOMA262016
SicklesOKLAHOMA232021
ElginOKLAHOMA222016
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA221994
CookietownOKLAHOMA212006
Shields 2TEXAS212023
WallTEXAS202022
CharlieTEXAS192024
ArthurNEBRASKA182024
BuckeyeKANSAS162023
VerdenOKLAHOMA162017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.