BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Piedmont has surged: up 555% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+555%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Piedmont: up 555% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.3 (95% range 6.2–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.3 (95% range 6.2–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.95.88.0
20267.05.98.1
20277.16.08.2
20287.26.18.3
20297.36.28.4

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EarltonMARYLAND522024
MadonnaMARYLAND322022
FinchleyVIRGINIA322021
WedoweeALABAMA292023
BlacksburgSOUTH-CAROLINA282012
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA272024
MaxeysGEORGIA212024
Stoney PointGEORGIA212007
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA212024
Brandy StationVIRGINIA212024
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA202024
BrodnaxVIRGINIA192024
TaylorstownVIRGINIA162010
GladysVIRGINIA162024
Ball GroundGEORGIA152021
HallVIRGINIA152023
CrotonNEW-JERSEY142002
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA142024
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA142024
WylliesburgVIRGINIA142019
SharonGEORGIA132022
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA132024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA132024
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA132024
CovesvilleVIRGINIA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.