BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Piedmont has surged: up 496% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+496%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Piedmont: up 496% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Piedmont is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 6.0–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Piedmont is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 6.0–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.95.68.1
20277.05.78.2
20287.15.88.3
20297.25.98.4
20307.36.08.5

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EarltonMARYLAND522024
MadonnaMARYLAND322022
FinchleyVIRGINIA322021
WedoweeALABAMA292023
BlacksburgSOUTH-CAROLINA282012
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA262025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND252025
EmmitsburgMARYLAND232025
MaxeysGEORGIA212024
Stoney PointGEORGIA212007
Big IslandVIRGINIA202025
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA172025
RinggoldVIRGINIA172025
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA162025
TaylorstownVIRGINIA162010
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA142025
CrotonNEW-JERSEY142002
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA142025
WylliesburgVIRGINIA142019
SharonGEORGIA132022
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA132024
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA132024
LanettALABAMA122024
JulietteGEORGIA122024
Hollonville 2GEORGIA122022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.