BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 676% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+676%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 676% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.53 (95% range 0.30–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.53 (95% range 0.30–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.240.70
20260.490.260.72
20270.500.270.73
20280.520.290.75
20290.530.300.76

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BadgerMINNESOTA132017
MccallsburgIOWA102024
ScrantonIOWA62024
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA62024
BeltramiMINNESOTA52024
Wolf PointMONTANA52018
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
WashingtonIOWA32024
ZearingIOWA31995
ClareIOWA32013
SacoMONTANA32017
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32018
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22021
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
GlyndonMINNESOTA22019
TenneyMINNESOTA22016
FairmontMINNESOTA22021
TracyMINNESOTA22023
RedstoneMONTANA22010
PoncaNEBRASKA22024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22022
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA22021
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA22017
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22021
PantherIOWA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.