BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 678% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+678%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 678% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Turkey Vulture In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.32–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.32–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.260.71
20270.500.280.73
20280.520.290.74
20290.530.300.76
20300.540.320.77

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CourtlandMINNESOTA132025
BadgerMINNESOTA132017
ChandlerMINNESOTA72025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Wolf PointMONTANA52018
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
WashingtonIOWA42025
ZearingIOWA31995
ScrantonIOWA32025
ClareIOWA32013
SacoMONTANA32017
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32018
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22021
MaynardMINNESOTA22015
GlyndonMINNESOTA22019
TenneyMINNESOTA22016
FairmontMINNESOTA22021
TracyMINNESOTA22023
RedstoneMONTANA22010
MidwayNEBRASKA22025
PoncaNEBRASKA22024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22022
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA22021
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA22017
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.