BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.6–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.6–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.54.0
20272.81.54.1
20282.81.54.1
20292.91.64.1
20302.91.64.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LamesaTEXAS272025
StilesTEXAS182025
Pine BluffWYOMING182022
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA162025
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO132025
SedanNEW-MEXICO132025
ElbertCOLORADO122025
RosebudNEW-MEXICO122025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA102025
HobbsNEW-MEXICO102025
TimpasCOLORADO92013
LakinKANSAS82021
FlaglerCOLORADO72025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA72025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO62022
FeltOKLAHOMA62024
ChanningTEXAS62018
KermitTEXAS61999
RankinTEXAS52025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO42025
TrincheraCOLORADO42021
VillegreenCOLORADO42024
JulesburgCOLORADO42019
FloydNEW-MEXICO42023
LoganNEW-MEXICO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.