BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Spotted Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+270%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.3 (95% range 5.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.3 (95% range 5.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.04.911
20268.05.011
20278.15.111
20288.25.111
20298.35.211

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO1432024
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO682024
Baxter PassCOLORADO642024
Hill CreekUTAH571995
Douglas PassCOLORADO512024
AngoraCOLORADO492024
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO452000
AnethUTAH432024
LudlowCOLORADO382016
CokedaleCOLORADO352024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO322024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO312024
PecosNEW-MEXICO312017
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO292022
La Sal 2UTAH272006
BonanzaUTAH262015
NuclaCOLORADO252024
WellingtonUTAH252002
Wilson CreekCOLORADO242024
MonticelloUTAH242024
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO232023
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO222024
YampaCOLORADO202023
DinosaurCOLORADO202024
WalsenburgCOLORADO202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.