BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Spotted Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+316%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Spotted Towhee has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Spotted Towhee In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 9.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 9.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.25.111
20278.25.211
20288.35.311
20298.45.311
20308.45.411

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Spotted Towhee in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO1622025
FayetteUTAH662025
Baxter PassCOLORADO642024
WalsenburgCOLORADO592025
Hill CreekUTAH571995
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO522025
Douglas PassCOLORADO512024
AngoraCOLORADO462025
Wray GulchCOLORADO452025
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO452000
GallinasNEW-MEXICO442025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO422025
CokedaleCOLORADO392025
Beck 2UTAH362025
Wilson CreekCOLORADO322025
PecosNEW-MEXICO312017
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO292025
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO292022
Wet Mtns.COLORADO282025
NuclaCOLORADO282025
HatchUTAH272025
La Sal 2UTAH272006
AnethUTAH262025
BonanzaUTAH262015
Main CanyonUTAH262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.