BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

37 species in this guild. As a group they are +36%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.75.4
20264.63.85.4
20274.63.85.5
20284.73.85.5
20294.73.85.5

Member Species In Missouri

Forest birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-93%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-69%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-37%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-5%
American RobinTurdidae+6%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+16%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+17%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+18%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+28%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+32%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+35%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+46%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+58%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+66%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+85%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+99%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+107%
American RedstartParulidae+121%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+140%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+152%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+170%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+178%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+204%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+208%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+244%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+245%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+246%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+247%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+255%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+268%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+272%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+351%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+357%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+580%
Northern ParulaParulidae+656%
Pine WarblerParulidae13×
OvenbirdParulidae20×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.