BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

37 species in this guild. As a group they are +36%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Missouri is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.8–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.75.4
20264.63.85.4
20274.63.85.5
20284.73.85.5
20294.73.85.5

Member Species In Missouri

Forest birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-93%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-69%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-37%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-5%
American RobinTurdidae+6%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+16%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+17%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+18%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+28%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+32%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+35%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+46%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+58%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+66%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+85%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+99%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+107%
American RedstartParulidae+121%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+140%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+152%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+170%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+178%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+204%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+208%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+244%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+245%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+246%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+247%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+255%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+268%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+272%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+351%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+357%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+580%
Northern ParulaParulidae+656%
Pine WarblerParulidae13×
OvenbirdParulidae20×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.