BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

59 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Missouri is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 5.1–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Missouri is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 5.1–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.85.06.6
20275.85.06.6
20285.85.16.6
20295.95.16.6
20305.95.16.6

Member Species In Missouri

Forest birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-92%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-68%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-62%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-49%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-47%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-31%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-29%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-26%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-23%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-15%
Blue JayCorvidae-8%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-4%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+7%
American RobinTurdidae+8%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae+11%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+12%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+15%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+19%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+22%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+23%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+27%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+34%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+40%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+50%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+50%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+53%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+59%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+64%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+80%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+81%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae+87%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+89%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+93%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+123%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+126%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+141%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+150%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+156%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+157%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+166%
American RedstartParulidae+176%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+178%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+198%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+203%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+215%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+235%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+243%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+249%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+256%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+264%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+275%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+355%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+371%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+404%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+581%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+602%
Northern ParulaParulidae+675%
Pine WarblerParulidae13×
OvenbirdParulidae18×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.