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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+256%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Missouri: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri is projected to rise about 51% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.76.413
20279.86.513
202810.06.713
2029106.813
2030106.914

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clementine4520021975
Clementine 24320072005
Cascade3520251967
Gerald3220252013
Osage Beach3020251997
Sweden2920251970
Mincy2820252013
Moselle2420252001
Palace2220252014
Lincoln1820252013
Hayden1720251975
Whitewater1420251996
Centertown1320251976
Bennett1320251994
Crane1320251994
Barks1320251994
Gildehouse1319891978
Eugene1220252013
House Springs1120252017
Rueter1020222022
Centerville920251994
Rueter 2920252023
Ironton719801973
Akers720251967
Filley720251975

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.