BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri has surged: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+272%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Missouri: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.86.613
20269.96.713
2027106.813
2028107.013
2029107.114

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clementine4520021975
Clementine 24320072005
Cascade2720241967
Mincy2520242013
Rueter 22320242023
Bland2120241998
Palace2020242014
Moselle2020242001
Osage Beach1920241997
Eugene1820242013
Lincoln1720242013
Doe Run1720242015
House Springs1520242017
Sweden1420241970
Graniteville1320241982
Gildehouse1319891978
Graydon1120241970
Filley1120241975
Crane1120241994
Barks1020241994
Centerville1020241994
Rueter1020222022
Frankford920241985
Whitewater820241996
Ironton719801973

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.