BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has risen sharply in Kentucky: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 6.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 6.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.35.611
20268.45.711
20278.55.811
20288.65.911
20298.76.011

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp8720181966
Levee 24120192007
Staffordsvil2619971996
Mammoth Cave2120141995
Paintsville1719951979
Beattyville 21720242006
Riverqueen1420242007
Johnsonville1420211966
Joy1420231966
Bays Fork1420191999
Campton1420211979
Lebanon Junction1320242000
Kehoe1219921966
Morganfield1020242022
Mammoth Cave North920132009
Hodgenville 2920232008
Bardwell820031967
Pine Ridge819781966
Merrimac820241967
Carter820241976
East Union720221966
Apex720242005
Hegira620241988
Monticello620221969
Million619861966

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.