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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 5.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 5.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.15.211
20278.25.211
20288.35.311
20298.45.411
20308.55.511

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp8720181966
Levee 24120192007
Staffordsvil2619971996
Mammoth Cave2120141995
Paintsville1719951979
Beattyville 21720242006
Johnsonville1420211966
Joy1420231966
Bays Fork1420191999
Campton1420211979
Kehoe1219921966
Riverqueen1120252007
Morganfield920252022
Apex920252005
Mammoth Cave North920132009
Hodgenville 2920232008
Bardwell820031967
Pine Ridge819781966
Merrimac820241967
Carter720251976
Hegira620241988
Monticello620221969
Million619861966
Drakesboro620031966
Canton520251968

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.