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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.60–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.60–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.725.0
20272.80.695.0
20282.80.675.0
20292.80.644.9
20302.80.604.9

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paradise1220251966
Lost River1220251996
Yellow Spg1120221975
Sleepy Creek1019901966
Henderson1020232002
Hubbardstown820251966
Strange Crk820251982
Rio819951974
Hix720251970
Hanover720251980
Welch720252002
Smithfield720251993
Bismark720231976
Pedro620251979
Ghent620251978
Pt Pleasant620251973
Stollings520211986
Sutton520251976
Cedarville520231982
Bebee520251972
Martinsburg520251966
Clear Creek420251988
Arlee419751966
Fayetteville419961980
Meadland420251997

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.