BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.58–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.58–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.705.0
20262.80.675.0
20272.80.645.0
20282.80.614.9
20292.70.584.9

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Welch2120232002
Bramwell1820231978
Hubbardstown1820231966
Yellow Spg1120221975
Shanghai1120221995
Sleepy Creek1019901966
Henderson1020232002
Rockport820241966
Washburn820221974
Rio819951974
Slate720241980
Bismark720231976
Spencer620231986
Stollings520211986
Cedarville520231982
Hix420241970
Arlee419751966
Fayetteville419961980
Mo Of Seneca420191969
Berryburg419961975
Meadowville420231972
Martinsburg420241966
Clinton420231966
Glade Run420021996
Smoot320241980

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.