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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi has surged: up 546% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+546%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Mississippi: up 546% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 7.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 7.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.56.511
20268.76.611
20278.86.811
20288.96.911
20299.17.011

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee3820221971
Trace Choctaw3220192012
Trace Lee3020182013
Tupelo2520221968
Corinth2220241972
Mt Carmel1620161987
Trace North1620182008
Grenada Lake1620191997
Duck Hill1520241968
Holly Springs1520242009
Oak Ridge Vick1520212015
Trace Attala1520192016
Trace Chickasaw1420242012
Forest1320241972
Water Valley1220182015
De Soto1120192009
Columbia1020181972
Monticello1020172007
Embry1020241988
Lake920241966
Neely920121974
Amite River920132008
Beverly820111966
Olive Branch820011976
Cockrum820241974

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.