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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina has surged: up 735% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+735%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in North Carolina: up 735% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026139.317
2027139.417
2028139.617
2029149.817
2030149.917

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ernul4420092001
Eden4220251987
Rheasville4220172005
Kinston3620241966
Jackson3620171995
Montague3420251990
Shallotte2819911969
Uwharrie Nf2620011993
Spring Hope2620252002
Osmond2420252001
Dortches2220251990
Jordan2020251970
Cypress Cr2020221990
Maple Hill2020231995
Youngsville1920251966
Bullock1920251997
Raeford1920251990
Durham1820251990
Monticello1820251990
Goldston1820222003
Green Swamp1820062002
Fontana1720251968
Supply1720251992
California 21720252014
Gupton1720252001

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.