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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina has surged: up 697% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+697%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in North Carolina: up 697% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 10.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 10.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.317
2026139.517
2027139.617
2028149.817
20291410.017

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ernul4420092001
Rheasville4220172005
Kinston3620241966
Jackson3620171995
Shallotte2819911969
Oakboro2820241969
Dortches2820241990
Cypress Lakes2720242004
Uwharrie Nf2620011993
Jamesville2420241983
California 22320242014
Osmond2320242001
Eden2220241987
Jordan2120241970
Gupton2120242001
Cypress Cr2020221990
Maple Hill2020231995
Montague2020241990
Supply1920241992
Dudley1820242002
Goldston1820222003
Green Swamp1820062002
Fontana1620241968
Pinetops1620241997
Durham1620241990

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.