BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in New York: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.03–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±198.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.03–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±198.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.020.28
20260.150.020.28
20270.160.030.29
20280.160.030.29
20290.160.030.29

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cattaraugus819971997
W Shokan520191981
Harris Hill520052005
Churchville420191993
Clinton419931993
Rifton319841977
Phillips Cr320002000
Orange Lake319871987
Westhampton220041992
Catskills220151967
Oriskany Fls220222022
Cayuga220232018
E Youngstown220162015
Byron219891988
Cicero Ctr220001966
Purdy220181990
Warwick 2219981976
North Easton220232008
Bedford119881978
Somers119751975
Rhinebeck120241994
Highland120061982
Warwick119741969
Middletown120091991
Westbrookvle120191968

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.