BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York has surged: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+243%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.03–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±161.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.03–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±161.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.030.28
20270.160.030.28
20280.160.030.29
20290.160.030.29
20300.160.030.29

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cattaraugus819971997
W Shokan520191981
Harris Hill520052005
Clinton419931993
Rifton319841977
Phillips Cr320002000
Orange Lake319871987
Westhampton220041992
Catskills220151967
Oriskany Fls220222022
Cayuga220232018
E Youngstown220242015
Byron219891988
Cicero Ctr220001966
Pulaski220252023
Purdy220181990
Warwick 2219981976
North Easton220252008
Bedford119881978
Somers119751975
Rhinebeck120251994
Highland120061982
Warwick119741969
Middletown120091991
Westbrookvle120191968

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.