BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+201%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Florida: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.5 (95% range 5.0–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.5 (95% range 5.0–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.77.7
20266.34.77.8
20276.34.87.8
20286.44.97.9
20296.55.08.0

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island Grove2320241992
Lovedale2020111990
Miller Xrds1920191987
Kissimmee1920241987
Pinecrest1820241966
Ocala1620241987
Chassahowitz1620241997
Laurel Hill1520242010
Hildreth 21520242010
Belmore1420241966
Blackwater1420241987
Citrus Park1420241989
Seminole Hls1320001967
St Augustine1320241967
Betts1320241987
Doctors Inlet 21320182008
Citrus1320242010
Goethe1220242010
Nobleton1120241987
Oak Grove 21120242024
Alligator Pt1020241987
Seminole Hills 21020222002
St Vincent I1020241995
Bloxham920221987
Croom920241987

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.