BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+216%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Florida: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 5.1–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 5.1–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.34.87.8
20276.44.97.9
20286.44.98.0
20296.55.08.0
20306.65.18.1

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocala2320251987
Citrus2220252010
Goethe2220252010
Island Grove2020251992
Lovedale2020111990
Miller Xrds1920191987
Ft Mccoy1920251987
Oak Grove 21820252024
Steinhatchee1720251966
Hildreth 21520252010
Belmore1420241966
Seminole Hls1320001967
St Augustine1320251967
Pinecrest1320251966
Doctors Inlet 21320182008
Olustee1320251992
Betts1020251987
Citrus Park1020251989
Seminole Hills 21020222002
Green Swamp920251987
St Vincent I920251995
Chassahowitz920251997
Miccosukee820251967
Myakka Head820101986
Alligator Pt820251987

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.