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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+102%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Arkansas: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 8.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026106.014
2027106.114
2028106.214
2029106.315
2030116.415

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nance2720251992
Magazine Mtn2320251993
Stephens1920252010
Stark1720251967
Zion1720251967
Ravenden Springs1720152010
Four Lakes1720011994
Compton1520221967
Marshall1520212011
Lockesburg1320192010
Blakely1219991968
Augusta1220011967
Havana1220212010
Ozark Nf1220251991
Ramsey1119971967
Ashdown1120231967
Poyen1120071967
Centerton1120252010
Rudy1120252011
Coal Hill1020231977
Maynard1020251967
Princeton 21020222022
Crowley'S Ridge920252011
Waldron820251967
Sims820252010

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.