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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas has surged: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Arkansas: up 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.5–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.014
2026106.114
2027106.215
2028116.415
2029116.515

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Milo2520141967
Zion2420241967
Ravenden Springs1720152010
Four Lakes1720011994
Nance1720241992
Magazine Mtn1620211993
Compton1520221967
Marshall1520212011
Hughes1320231967
Lockesburg1320192010
Blakely1219991968
Augusta1220011967
Havana1220212010
Ramsey1119971967
Ashdown1120231967
Poyen1120071967
Stark1120241967
Coal Hill1020231977
Sims1020242010
Princeton 21020222022
Boston Mtn.920241994
Dry Fork 2920242024
Eudora720161967
Crows719911967
Hollywood720241967

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.