BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas has surged: up 222% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+222%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Texas: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.7
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.8
20282.21.62.8
20292.31.72.9

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rockspring3720241994
Valley Spgs1920241970
San Saba1920241978
Harper1820241969
Pidcoke 21820242018
Decatur1820241995
Leakey1620241994
Morton1220241972
Crossroads1220241978
Allen Creek1220242002
Livingston1120241971
Gause1119971970
Weches1120241995
Bon Wier1120241996
Adamsville1020241985
Rhome1020242008
Comstock1020171975
Prairie Mtn.1020241994
Caledonia920241971
Montell920241995
Catarina820071977
Kempner720191984
Selden720241989
Cayuga720242006
Fred720241995

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.