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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas has surged: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+245%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Texas: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.8
20282.31.72.9
20292.31.72.9
20302.31.72.9

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leakey2420251994
Prairie Mtn.2120251994
Rockspring2020251994
Decatur1820241995
San Saba1720251978
Valley Spgs1620251970
Graford1520251967
Liberty Hill1520251968
Smyrna 21520252011
Harper1420251969
Pidcoke 21320252018
Lydia1220251967
Allen Creek1220252002
Bon Wier1220251996
Gause1119971970
Comstock1020171975
Three Rivers1020251995
Yoakum1020251994
Beaver Creek1020252022
Fannin920252006
Alexander St920251995
Easton 2920252015
Catarina820071977
Indian Mtn820251976
Cayuga820252006

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.