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Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Indiana: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.32.24.3
20263.32.24.4
20273.32.34.4
20283.42.34.5
20293.42.44.5

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia1420241999
Indian Spgs1220241983
Millersburg1120241982
Witts Station1120242003
Wallace920242000
Celestine820241979
Azalia620241982
New Phila620241982
Sexton520171992
Washington520242012
Cumback520211966
Corydon520241966
Hoosier420241990
Newberry420242005
Packertown320041974
Swayzee320192001
Brazil320242000
Friendswood320241987
Spencer320241967
Brookville320241966
Evansville320221966
Portage 2320242011
Columbia Cty220041994
W Lafayette220241985
Galveston220241981

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.