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Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+119%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Indiana: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.32.24.3
20273.32.34.4
20283.42.34.4
20293.42.34.5
20303.42.44.5

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumback1620251966
Georgia1420251999
Indian Spgs1320251983
Millersburg1120241982
Wallace920242000
Brookville820251966
Celestine820251979
Hoosier820251990
Witts Station820252003
Azalia720251982
Corydon720251966
Galveston620251981
Sexton520171992
Scottsburg520251982
Cross Plains520251999
Washington420252012
Cyprss420252001
Packertown320041974
Friendswood320241987
Spencer320241967
New Phila320251982
Evansville320221966
Newberry320252005
Portage 2320242011
Columbia Cty220041994

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.