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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama has surged: up 567% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+567%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Alabama: up 567% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.314
2027129.514
2028129.714
2029129.815
20301210.015

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wedgeworth6020251984
Sprott-Cahaba Riv4720141999
Carrollton4620251994
Autaugaville4520251996
Cottonton4120251969
Jena4120251981
Smyer Lake4020251966
Epes3820241980
Stevenson3420241996
Borden Springs 23020242001
Riderwood2820231966
Greensboro2620251966
Blocton2520251969
Nixburg 22520252000
Harrell2420251968
Triana2420121999
Helicon2320251996
Castleberry2220251966
Holt2220251993
Calebee2220251995
Riverside2220131999
Howard2120251975
Mt Olive2020251966
Greensport1920251966
Liberty City 21920252017

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.