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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama has surged: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+440%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Alabama: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 9.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 9.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025119.213
2026119.313
2027129.514
2028129.714
2029129.814

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sprott-Cahaba Riv4720141999
Epes3820241980
Wedgeworth3520241984
Stevenson3420241996
Borden Springs 23020242001
Riderwood2820231966
Greensboro2820241966
Cottonton2820241969
Blocton2720241969
Mt Olive2620241966
Warrior Std2520241966
Triana2420121999
Helicon2320241996
Riverside2220131999
Howard2120241975
Mt. Gilead2020241995
Liberty City 22020242017
Brantley1820241966
Wedowee1820231996
Liberty1720221975
Smyer Lake1520241966
Wallsboro1520211966
Liberty City1520111979
Borden Sprng1519981993
Dearmanville1419831966

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.