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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Ohio: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.24.9
20263.62.24.9
20273.62.34.9
20283.62.35.0
20293.72.35.0

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rome3420241966
Dell2520191993
Zaleski S.F.2020241992
Tick Ridge1420191993
Shawnee S.F. 21320192001
Greasy Ridge1219911966
Coal Run1119921966
Wilgus1120091992
Shawnee S.F.1020001992
Tar Hollow1020241992
Stonecreek920241996
Harveysburg719961966
W Carrollton720151989
Wayne N.F.720241992
Dresden620241966
Mohican S.F.620241992
Smithfield520241967
Ray520241992
New Marshfld520241966
Cuba420041995
Wilmington419961979
Birmingham420241988
South Olive420171993
Kalida320192010
Cumberland320071966

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.