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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Ohio: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.3–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.24.9
20273.62.24.9
20283.62.34.9
20293.62.35.0
20303.72.35.0

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rome3820251966
Dell2520191993
Tick Ridge1420191993
Shawnee S.F. 21320192001
Greasy Ridge1219911966
Coal Run1119921966
Wilgus1120091992
Smithfield1020251967
Shawnee S.F.1020001992
Tar Hollow1020241992
Harveysburg719961966
W Carrollton720151989
Ray620251992
Bolins Mills620251966
Zaleski S.F.620251992
New Marshfld520251966
Cuba420041995
Wilmington419961979
Birmingham420241988
Harveysburg 2420251997
South Olive420251993
Wayne N.F.420251992
Kalida320192010
Fulton320251968
Baxter Ridge320251999

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.