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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 5.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.84.713
20268.94.913
20279.05.013
20289.15.113
20299.25.213

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heyburn3120241992
Wichita Mtns2619941994
Holdenville2420241967
Wichita Mts West2020222004
Goodwater1720211992
Matoy1520001992
Tatums1520241992
Sandbluff1419951992
Pushmataha1420231994
Ft Sill West1119941994
Choctaw1020231967
Wichita Mtns East1020222004
Blanco920161967
Verden920171967
Barnsdall819761967
Hee Mountain820241999
Skiatook820191982
Phillips720081968
Baron720231967
Noble720241967
Bethel720241993
Pocola720161992
Canadian620171967
Elgin620152013
Sickles620211992

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.