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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+153%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Virginia: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.76.311
20268.86.411
20278.96.511
20289.06.611
20299.16.712

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Surry4120241978
Branchville2920241966
Newville2920241990
Amherst2820241975
Brandon2620241992
Walkers2520231992
Truhart2520241996
Church Road2420241966
Newsoms2420241978
Big Island2320241973
Mannboro2320241967
Wylliesburg2320191976
Pw Forest Pk2220091992
Moran1820241996
Covington1520241966
White Stone1520241966
New Market1520241992
Hall1320231967
Irisburg1320241976
Finchley1320211994
Ft Pickett S1319951993
Gloucester1320241992
Quinby1220241966
Pungo1220241975
Carters Brdg 21220242015

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.