BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+161%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Virginia: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.3 (95% range 6.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.3 (95% range 6.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.86.411
20278.96.511
20289.06.611
20299.16.712
20309.36.812

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brandon3620251992
Branchville2920241966
Newville2920241990
Moran2620251996
Walkers2520231992
Truhart2520241996
Church Road2420251966
Newsoms2420241978
Wylliesburg2320191976
Amherst2220251975
Pw Forest Pk2220091992
Irisburg1920251976
Covington1820251966
Carters Brdg 21620252015
Big Island1520251973
Mannboro1520251967
White Stone1520251966
Surry1520251978
Port Royal1320251977
Natural Brid1320251974
Finchley1320211994
Ft Pickett S1319951993
Tryme1220251975
Edinburg1220251968
Covesville1220251967

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.