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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia has surged: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+382%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Georgia: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 8.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 8.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.47.511
20279.67.612
20289.77.712
20299.97.912
2030108.012

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Good Hope3020252005
Baxley2620191966
Amos Mill2520222011
Kite Lake2320252015
Barges2120252011
Shiloh2020252012
Linwood1820231970
Colonels Island1820232005
Whitesburg1720251992
Tazewell1620251969
Woodbine1520242011
Ousley1520252015
Candler1520252009
Wrightsville1420251966
Macon1420251975
Juliette1420251975
Yates Crossroads1420252005
Newton1320251975
Hollonville1320031974
Cartersville1320251966
Shannon1320191975
White Hill1320252005
Irwinton1320252016
Carrs Station1320252008
Sunny Side1320192006

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.