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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia has surged: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+402%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Georgia: up 402% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 8.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 7.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 8.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.47.411
20269.57.512
20279.77.712
20289.87.812
202910.08.012

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ousley3120242015
Baxley2620191966
Amos Mill2520222011
Union2220232011
Whitesburg2020241992
Barges1920242011
Linwood1820231970
Colonels Island1820232005
Macon1720241975
Newton1520241975
Juliette1520241975
Woodbine1520242011
Shiloh1520242012
Rentz1420241977
Wrightsville1320241966
Hollonville1320031974
Shannon1320191975
Boston1320241978
Ball Ground1320212019
Irwinton1320242016
Sunny Side1320192006
Candler1320242009
Courthouse1220241966
Lincolnton1220171966
Deepstep1220231975

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.