BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Idaho has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-24%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 56% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 56% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.16
20250.060.000.16
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.060.000.15

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pocatello320191979
Almo220231988
Kyle Canyon220231995
Twin Buttes120101988
Magic Mtn120082008

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.