Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in California
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in California has surged: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
+532%Since 1970
145Routes In State
56Years
Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in California
long arc increasecomputed index
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in California: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in California
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in California is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.80–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+19%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.80–1.795% range
±50.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2 | 0.74 | 1.7 |
| 2026 | 1.2 | 0.75 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 1.2 | 0.77 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 0.79 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 0.80 | 1.7 |
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in California
| Elsinore Mtn | 41 | 2024 | 1987 |
| Carmel Val | 17 | 2024 | 1974 |
| Bartlett Sps | 13 | 2018 | 1973 |
| Hullville | 12 | 2019 | 1968 |
| Santa Ynez | 10 | 2019 | 1975 |
| Lake Cachuma | 10 | 2016 | 1972 |
| Stonyford | 10 | 2018 | 2015 |
| Lake Hemet 2 | 9 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Hay Fork | 9 | 2017 | 2009 |
| Rumsey | 8 | 2008 | 1980 |
| Silver City | 7 | 2013 | 1994 |
| Coulterville | 7 | 2019 | 1997 |
| Yolla Bolly | 6 | 2023 | 1975 |
| French Gulch | 6 | 2007 | 2002 |
| Coalinga | 5 | 2005 | 1973 |
| Mt Baldy | 5 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Tehama | 5 | 2022 | 1973 |
| Woodlands | 5 | 2024 | 2017 |
| Hough Springs | 5 | 2007 | 1999 |
| Friday Ridge | 5 | 2024 | 1995 |
| Sawmill Mtn | 4 | 2022 | 1973 |
| Fallsvale | 4 | 1975 | 1975 |
| Longvale | 4 | 2023 | 1973 |
| Clear Lk Res | 4 | 2014 | 1995 |
| Iron Gate | 4 | 2019 | 1988 |
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.