BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+197%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.27
20270.140.000.27
20280.140.000.27
20290.140.000.28

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater1220001995
Millville320161973
Caledonia 2320242018
Money Creek220111974
Sherburne Nr220131990
Courtland220172000
Chatfield119871987
Lakeville119931993
Minnetonka120011996
Arlington120042004
Whitewater 2120142011
Princeton120211997
Osseo120012000
Wigwam Bay120152015
Mille Lacs120082008
Caledonia120041993
Austin119961996
Frontenac120232009
Le Center120142014
Glenwood120072007
Brainerd120022002
Ashby120192007
Chatfield 2120242007

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.