BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+259%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.01–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.01–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.28
20270.140.010.28
20280.140.010.28
20290.150.010.28
20300.150.010.29

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater1220001995
Caledonia 2420252018
Millville320251973
Chatfield 2320252007
Money Creek220111974
Courtland220172000
Chatfield119871987
Sherburne Nr120251990
Lakeville119931993
Minnetonka120011996
Arlington120042004
Whitewater 2120142011
Princeton120251997
Osseo120012000
Wigwam Bay120152015
Mille Lacs120082008
Caledonia120041993
Austin119961996
Frontenac120232009
Le Center120142014
Glenwood120072007
Brainerd120022002
Ashby120192007

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.