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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+197%Since 1976
23Routes In State
45Years

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 197% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 90% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2029
0.14Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2895% range
±38.7%Backtest error
19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.27
20270.140.000.27
20280.140.000.27
20290.140.000.28

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Minnesota.
Whitewater1220001995
Millville320161973
Caledonia 2320242018
Money Creek220111974
Sherburne Nr220131990
Courtland220172000
Chatfield119871987
Lakeville119931993
Minnetonka120011996
Arlington120042004
Whitewater 2120142011
Princeton120211997
Osseo120012000
Wigwam Bay120152015
Mille Lacs120082008
Caledonia120041993
Austin119961996
Frontenac120232009
Le Center120142014
Glenwood120072007
Brainerd120022002
Ashby120192007
Chatfield 2120242007

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.