BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kansas has surged: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+254%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Kansas: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.84–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.761.7
20261.30.781.7
20271.30.801.8
20281.30.821.8
20291.30.841.8

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wreford920241967
Le Loup720212001
Olsburg620242000
Trading Post520242000
Kanopolis420191969
Lincolnville420242002
Rock Creek 2420222022
Melrose320231968
Coats320241978
Dover320221969
Hanover320151971
Minneapolis320101992
Humboldt220191985
Wellington220241974
Dalton220241971
Olathe220211967
Barclay220241976
Chapman219811967
Buckeye220231967
Grantville220221983
Rock Creek220191968
Covert220171998
Jewell219931993
Phillipsburg219871985
Beloit 2220172017

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.