BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+296%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.56 (95% range 0.32–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.56 (95% range 0.32–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.280.76
20270.530.290.77
20280.540.300.78
20290.550.310.79
20300.560.320.80

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emory Pass1620251993
La Plata 2520162015
Lake Valley420031996
Nageesi320041969
Vicks Peak320251993
La Plata320111990
Sabinoso320211980
Valencia219681968
Stinking Lk.219991995
Vallecitos220251996
Engle219891989
Farmington119811979
Cebolla119771977
Ojo Sarco120211971
Torreon120212021
La Cienega120221972
Pecos120141975
Horse Mtn120231973
Carrizozo119931977
Dulce120252000
Angel Fire 2120212008
Magdalena120021997
Counselor120252001
Mcgaffey120221994
Gallinas120211992

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.