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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina has surged: up 334% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+334%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in South Carolina: up 334% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.316
2027127.517
2028127.617
2029127.717
2030127.817

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coward11620251966
Owings 24120252005
Salem Xrd3520191982
Whitmire2420242010
Adams Run2420251988
Bennettsville2020171998
Mount Pisgah1920251998
Pinewood1820191998
Carvers Bay1720121998
Owings1620041992
Sandhills1620251994
Nixville1620251998
Plum Branch1520251977
Prosperity1320241992
New Holland1220251967
Little Mtn1219881966
Campobello1220252010
Ridgeway1220252010
Greenwood1220251998
Jamestown1120191967
Red Bluff1120251996
Holly Hill1020251972
Salem920252010
Rome820251967
Dillon820211970

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.