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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina has surged: up 297% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+297%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in South Carolina: up 297% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.5–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.5–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.016
2026127.216
2027127.316
2028127.416
2029127.517

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walterboro3820171970
Salem Xrd3520191982
Adams Run3520241988
Whitmire2420242010
Sandhills2320241994
Bennettsville2020171998
Pinewood1820191998
Carvers Bay1720121998
Owings1620041992
Holly Hill1420241972
Prosperity1320241992
Little Mtn1219881966
Campobello1220242010
Jamestown1120191967
Plum Branch1020241977
Nixville1020171998
Green Sea920242010
Salem920242010
Rome820241967
Dillon820211970
Nixonville819951987
Blacksburg820131998
Mount Pisgah820191998
Kiawah Island820241998
Olar720191998

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.