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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Nevada has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+160%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher has surged in Nevada: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Nevada is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.32–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Nevada is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.32–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.262.0
20261.20.272.1
20271.20.292.1
20281.20.302.1
20291.20.322.1

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ranchogrande720241988
Hawthorne620011999
Comins Lake520162005
Ruby Valley 2520132004
Austin420182008
Willis420241994
Meadow Vally320241996
Jean Lake320101977
Piute Mdws220182018
Cortez220232016
Walker Can220241992
Illipah220181991
Gardnerville220041998
Beatty220212006
Ruby Valley220011997
Desert Nwr119971991
Humboldt Nf120192005
Carson River120022002
Fish Creek120212008
Mizpah120211997
Ash Meadows120221993
Humboldt Nf 2120242021
Minerva120241993
Hiko120061968
Val Of Fire120242024

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.