BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arizona has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arizona is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.27–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arizona is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 0.93 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.27–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.690.241.2
20270.700.241.2
20280.710.251.2
20290.710.261.2
20300.720.271.2

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Blue-gray Gnatcatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal1020251986
Tonto Vill.820251992
Carr Mtn820251985
Sprucedale620251995
House Rock520221968
Cutter 2520182015
Page520152011
Tsaile520231996
Hunt319761976
Quartzsite320192003
Blue319891975
Black Mesa219951994
Round Rock219761976
Rose Wells219761968
Sawmill220082006
Prescott220151979
Mormon Lake219681968
Toroweap220251994
Alamo Res.220241998
Forest Lakes220251992
Redington220231994
The Gap119681968
Yampai119761969
Rucker120002000
Oatman120061998

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.