BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri has surged: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+247%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Missouri: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.8–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.8–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.57.6
20265.63.67.7
20275.73.77.7
20285.83.77.8
20295.83.87.9

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clementine2020021974
Bennett2020241994
Ohio1520241972
Viburnum1520242014
Richland1420212014
Union1419991990
Eugene1320242013
Osage Beach1220241997
Mincy1220242013
Moselle1120242000
Queen City1020212017
Emden1020242017
Auburn1020242014
Lincoln1020242013
Doe Run1020242015
West Plains1020242016
Ironton919801972
Crane920241994
Whitewater920241996
New Point920241994
Filley820241976
Williamsvill820241994
Hilda820241994
Lucerne820212016
Sweden720241968

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.