BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+264%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Missouri: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.63.67.6
20275.73.77.7
20285.73.77.8
20295.83.87.8
20305.93.97.9

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moselle2120252000
Clementine2020021974
Bennett1920251994
Centertown1720251974
Hilda1520251994
Viburnum1520242014
Williamsvill1420251994
Lincoln1420252013
Union1419991990
Pineville1320251974
Centerville1320251994
Gerald1320252013
Graniteville1220251982
Hayden1120251976
Queen City1020212017
Emden1020242017
West Plains1020242016
Sweden920251968
Cascade920251967
Ironton919801972
Ohio920251972
Huntsville920251968
New Point920251994
Eugene920252013
Miller920252014

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.