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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky has surged: up 977% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+977%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Kentucky: up 977% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky is projected to rise about 105% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.3–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky is projected to rise about 105% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.3–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.73.16.3
20274.73.16.3
20284.83.26.4
20294.93.36.5
20304.93.36.5

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp2120181973
Kehoe 21920242005
Beattyville 21620242006
Hegira1520241988
Hodgenville 21320232008
Monticello1120221992
Merrimac1020241967
Mammoth Cave920141995
Mammoth Cave North920132009
Porter820251987
Paintsville819951983
Pippa Passes719971988
Beattyville720011970
Joy720231966
Canton620251970
Sunnybrook620221976
Bardwell620031971
Buena Vista620171979
Riverqueen520252007
Levee519821967
Kehoe519921978
Morganfield520252022
Staffordsvil519971996
Lebanon Junction520252000
Shiloh420251973

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.