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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

12×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Kentucky: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 3.6–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.26.3
20264.83.36.3
20274.93.46.4
20285.03.56.5
20295.13.66.6

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp2120181973
Kehoe 21920242005
Beattyville 21620242006
Hegira1520241988
Hodgenville 21320232008
Porter1220241987
Sewell Shop1220231988
Carter1220241976
Monticello1120221992
Merrimac1020241967
Morganfield920242022
Mammoth Cave920141995
Mammoth Cave North920132009
Paintsville819951983
Canton720241970
Pippa Passes719971988
Mckee720241968
Beattyville720011970
Hustonville720241966
Joy720231966
Shiloh620231973
Sunnybrook620221976
Bardwell620031971
Buena Vista620171979
Apex620242006

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.