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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota has surged: up 496% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+496%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Minnesota: up 496% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.02.8
20261.91.02.8
20271.91.12.8
20282.01.12.9
20292.01.12.9

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edwards1620241973
Bagley1320061995
Knapp1220241970
Brook Park1120242003
Caledonia 21120242014
Minnetonka920241969
Ashby820211997
Osseo720241967
St Stephen720161968
Beltrami720241967
Whitewater720001994
Sherburne Nr620241990
Cohasset520211974
Bemidji519801968
Oklee420211983
Lude420231978
Caledonia420091993
Le Roy420241993
Frontenac420241993
Brainerd420241993
Chatfield 2420242005
Ash Creek320231995
Millville320191970
Mille Lacs320241967
Pine River320241972

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.