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Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Illinois

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois has surged: up 688% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+688%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Illinois: up 688% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.8–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.8–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.62.9
20262.31.73.0
20272.31.73.0
20282.41.73.0
20292.41.83.1

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bremen1720241970
Sandusky1220231993
Cave In Rock1220241993
Pulaski1020241975
Deer Creek920241969
Bradbury920241983
Delwood920241970
Belleview820241968
Wayne720241971
St Morgan720221980
Sheffield620241966
Columbia620231968
Mascoutah Lk620241981
Mt Vernon620241972
York620241994
Royalton620242001
Guilford520221973
Mill Creek520241967
Humboldt520241988
Geneseo420171968
Buda420231979
Stillwell420231976
Beaverdam Lk420231970
Shannon420241993
Lake Summerset420222001

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.