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Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Illinois

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois has surged: up 667% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+667%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Illinois: up 667% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.8–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.8–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.62.9
20272.31.73.0
20282.41.73.0
20292.41.73.0
20302.41.83.1

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bremen1320251970
Delwood1220251970
Sandusky1220231993
Cave In Rock1220241993
Belknap1120251971
Belleview1020251968
Deer Creek920241969
St Morgan720221980
Sheffield620241966
Columbia620231968
Mascoutah Lk620241981
Pulaski620251975
York620251994
Lake Summerset620252001
Guilford520221973
Pawnee520251968
Brnt Prairie520251977
Dudleyville520252001
Geneseo420171968
Buda420231979
Stillwell420231976
Mt Vernon420251972
Beaverdam Lk420231970
Shannon420241993
Mill Creek320251967

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.