BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

11×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New Jersey: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 2.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 2.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.65.3
20274.12.75.4
20284.12.85.5
20294.22.85.6
20304.32.95.6

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake3020241967
Pomona1620251978
Winslow1220251989
Sandbrook1020251971
Spraguetown 3920252021
Bennett Mill720001969
Dover720231977
Midvale620221971
Gillette520251988
Friendship520251977
Estell Manor520252021
Woodbury Hgt420251991
Albion420221966
Pedricktown 2420232014
Toms River320241966
Holmansville320091969
Bloomsbury320251969
High Point320251977
Roosevelt320221990
Cape May Ch320131995
Ramseysburg320251995
Ancora219761976
Clarksville219741974
New Bedford220241969
Robbinsville219721966

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.