BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

11×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in New Jersey: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.8–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 2.8–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.55.3
20264.02.65.3
20274.02.75.4
20284.12.75.5
20294.22.85.5

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake3020241967
Winslow1320241989
Pomona1120241978
Friendship1020241977
Ramseysburg920241995
Bennett Mill720001969
High Point720241977
Dover720231977
Midvale620221971
Spraguetown 3620242021
Woodbury Hgt520241991
Albion420221966
Bloomsbury420241969
Pedricktown 2420232014
Croton 2420242008
Toms River320241966
Sandbrook320241971
Holmansville320091969
Gillette320241988
Roosevelt320221990
Cape May Ch320131995
Ancora219761976
Clarksville219741974
New Bedford220241969
Robbinsville219721966

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.