BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+257%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Arizona: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.4–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.4–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.34.6
20273.01.34.6
20283.01.34.6
20293.01.34.7
20303.01.44.7

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.4120251992
Happy Jack2720251977
Sawmill2420141988
Pinetop2220221993
Williams2020251993
Sprucedale1820251992
Mt. Graham1420251995
Portal1320251975
Patagonia1120251968
Alpine820251992
Rucker620091993
Aztec Peak619781974
Zeniff519841970
Black Mesa419951988
Flagstaff420251989
Prescott420251974
Tsaile420231993
Mormon Lake319751968
Blue319901974
Sunizona319971968
Carr Mtn320251985
Cow Springs220171996
Maine220251992
Forest Lakes220251992
House Rock120211968

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.