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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+166%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Arizona: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.3–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.24.4
20262.81.24.5
20272.91.24.5
20282.91.24.5
20292.91.34.5

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Jack3020241977
Sawmill2420141988
Tonto Vill.2320211992
Pinetop2220221993
Williams1820191993
Prescott1720221974
Sprucedale1520231992
Patagonia1120241968
Forest Lakes920241992
Rucker620091993
Aztec Peak619781974
Portal520241975
Flagstaff520221989
Zeniff519841970
Alpine520231992
Black Mesa419951988
Tsaile420231993
Mormon Lake319751968
Blue319901974
Sunizona319971968
Mt. Graham320231995
Sunizona 2320222002
Carr Mtn320241985
Dry Park220241992
Cow Springs220171996

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.