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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania has surged: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+277%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Pennsylvania: up 277% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 3.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 3.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.93.04.8
20264.03.14.9
20274.03.14.9
20284.13.25.0
20294.13.25.0

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stoneybreak1620241992
Greentown1420241970
Canadensis1420241969
Betula1320221976
Doe Run1320241970
Waller1220241976
Duvall1220211974
Pocono Summit 21220102004
Russell City1120241968
Roulette 21020242022
Tussey Mtn.1020241993
Honesdale820241972
Beaver820241969
Waterstreet820241968
Ryde820051970
Naginey820241970
Carsonville820231966
Mill Run820241978
Berwick820241985
Broad Mtn.820241995
N Pine Grove720241969
Geeseytown720241987
Collegeville720241976
Harrisville720221995
Mawr Glen620231969

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.