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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+256%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-breasted Nuthatch Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Pennsylvania: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 3.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 3.2–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.93.04.8
20274.03.14.9
20284.03.14.9
20294.13.25.0
20304.13.25.0

White-breasted Nuthatch Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canadensis2220251969
Stoneybreak2120251992
Greentown1420241970
Betula1320221976
Doe Run1320251970
Duvall1220211974
Pocono Summit 21220102004
Ramsey1020251968
Harrisville1020251995
Wild Creek1020251988
Waller920251976
Berwick920251985
Waterstreet820241968
Ryde820051970
Carsonville820231966
Landisburg820251978
Ferris Crnrs720251966
Collegeville720241976
Tussey Mtn.720251993
Wakena620231979
Pine Gr Mill620251967
Drehersville 2620252000
Rothrock Sf620191992
Sigel520251981
N Pine Grove520251969

White-breasted Nuthatch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.